Aki Basho: final forecast
Frozen after the final day, before the next banzuke was published.
How the Aki Basho forecast did
Graded against the official Kyushu Basho banzuke. The forecast was frozen before it was published.
- Right direction
- 96% 65 of 68
- Exact rank
- 59% 40 of 68
- Within one rank
- 87% 59 of 68
- Division moves
- 13/17 Makuuchi/Juryo line calls
- Exact slot 26
- Right rank, other side 14
- One rank off 19
- Right direction 8
- Wrong direction 1
All 68 calls
| Wrestler | Was | Record | We said | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirishima | Ozeki 1 East | 87 | Ozeki 2 East | Ozeki 2 East | Exact |
| Kotozakura | Ozeki 1 West | 96 | Ozeki 1 West | Ozeki 1 West | Exact |
| Aonishiki | Ozeki 2 East | 114 | Ozeki 1 East | Ozeki 1 East | Exact |
| Atamifuji | Sekiwake 1 East | 87 | Sekiwake 1 West | Sekiwake 1 West | Exact |
| Fujinokawa | Sekiwake 1 West | 114 | Sekiwake 1 East | Sekiwake 1 East | Exact |
| Hakunofuji | Komusubi 1 East | 510 | Maegashira 1 East | Maegashira 3 West | Right direction (2 off) |
| Daieisho | Komusubi 1 West | 510 | Maegashira 1 West | Maegashira 4 West | Right direction (3 off) |
| Kotoshoho | Maegashira 1 East | 573 | Maegashira 5 West | Maegashira 6 East | One rank off |
| Kotoeiho | Maegashira 1 West | 510 | Maegashira 6 East | Maegashira 6 West | Right rank |
| Takayasu | Maegashira 2 East | 78 | Maegashira 3 East | Maegashira 3 East | Exact |
| Yoshinofuji | Maegashira 2 West | 96 | Komusubi 1 West | Komusubi 1 West | Exact |
| Gonoyama | Maegashira 3 East | 69 | Maegashira 6 West | Maegashira 5 West | One rank off |
| Churanoumi | Maegashira 3 West | 105 | Komusubi 1 East | Komusubi 1 East | Exact |
| Takanosho | Maegashira 4 East | 492 | Maegashira 10 West | Maegashira 11 East | One rank off |
| Fujiryoga | Maegashira 4 West | 87 | Maegashira 2 West | Maegashira 1 West | One rank off |
| Roga | Maegashira 5 East | 69 | Maegashira 8 West | Maegashira 8 East | Right rank |
| Oshoma | Maegashira 5 West | 69 | Maegashira 9 East | Maegashira 9 East | Exact |
| Asanoyama | Maegashira 6 East | 105 | Maegashira 2 East | Maegashira 1 East | One rank off |
| Ichiyamamoto | Maegashira 6 West | 411 | Maegashira 12 West | Maegashira 12 East | Right rank |
| Fujiseiun | Maegashira 7 East | 96 | Maegashira 3 West | Maegashira 2 West | One rank off |
| Nishikifuji | Maegashira 7 West | 78 | Maegashira 8 East | Maegashira 8 West | Right rank |
| Takerufuji | Maegashira 8 East | 96 | Maegashira 4 West | Maegashira 4 East | Right rank |
| Hiradoumi | Maegashira 8 West | 96 | Maegashira 5 East | Maegashira 5 East | Exact |
| Ura | Maegashira 9 East | 105 | Maegashira 4 East | Maegashira 2 East | Right direction (2 off) |
| Shishi | Maegashira 9 West | 78 | Maegashira 10 East | Maegashira 10 East | Exact |
| Oho | Maegashira 10 East | 78 | Maegashira 11 West | Maegashira 10 West | One rank off |
| Kinbozan | Maegashira 10 West | 96 | Maegashira 7 West | Maegashira 7 West | Exact |
| Wakamotoharu | Maegashira 11 East | 105 | Maegashira 7 East | Maegashira 7 East | Exact |
| Shodai | Maegashira 11 West | 312 | Juryo 1 West | Juryo 3 West | Right direction (2 off) |
| Wakatakakage | Maegashira 12 East | 0015 | Juryo 9 West | Juryo 5 West | Right direction (4 off) |
| Asahakuryu | Maegashira 12 West | 87 | Maegashira 11 East | Maegashira 11 West | Right rank |
| Asakoryu | Maegashira 13 East | 96 | Maegashira 9 West | Maegashira 9 West | Exact |
| Abi | Maegashira 13 West | 87 | Maegashira 12 East | Maegashira 12 West | Right rank |
| Tobizaru | Maegashira 14 East | 411 | Juryo 2 West | Juryo 2 West | Exact |
| Chiyoshoma | Maegashira 14 West | 510 | Maegashira 16 West | Juryo 1 East | Right direction (3 off) |
| Asasuiryu | Maegashira 15 East | 87 | Maegashira 13 West | Maegashira 13 West | Exact |
| Tokihayate | Maegashira 15 West | 87 | Maegashira 14 East | Maegashira 14 East | Exact |
| Wakanosho | Maegashira 16 East | 0015 | Juryo 12 East | Juryo 10 West | Right direction (2 off) |
| Toshinofuji | Maegashira 16 West | 96 | Maegashira 13 East | Maegashira 13 East | Exact |
| Shonannoumi | Maegashira 17 East | 312 | Juryo 6 West | Juryo 6 East | Right rank |
| Dewanoryu | Juryo 1 East | 105 | Maegashira 14 West | Maegashira 14 West | Exact |
| Kyokukaiyu | Juryo 1 West | 87 | Maegashira 16 East | Maegashira 16 West | Right rank |
| Daiseizan | Juryo 2 East | 87 | Juryo 1 East | Maegashira 17 East | Right direction (2 off) |
| Kazuma | Juryo 2 West | 69 | Juryo 4 West | Juryo 4 East | Right rank |
| Tamawashi | Juryo 3 East | 105 | Maegashira 15 East | Maegashira 15 East | Exact |
| Onokatsu | Juryo 3 West | 87 | Juryo 2 East | Juryo 1 West | One rank off |
| Kazekeno | Juryo 4 East | 87 | Juryo 3 East | Juryo 2 East | One rank off |
| Mitakeumi | Juryo 4 West | 510 | Juryo 8 West | Juryo 9 East | One rank off |
| Sadanoumi | Juryo 5 East | 312 | Juryo 11 West | Juryo 11 West | Exact |
| Arashifuji | Juryo 5 West | 105 | Maegashira 17 East | Maegashira 16 East | One rank off |
| Kitanowaka | Juryo 6 East | 114 | Maegashira 15 West | Maegashira 15 West | Exact |
| Shirokuma | Juryo 6 West | 69 | Juryo 9 East | Juryo 9 West | Right rank |
| Midorifuji | Juryo 7 East | 78 | Juryo 8 East | Juryo 8 East | Exact |
| Tomokaze | Juryo 7 West | 510 | Juryo 11 East | Juryo 11 East | Exact |
| Ryuden | Juryo 8 East | 96 | Juryo 4 East | Juryo 5 East | One rank off |
| Hatsuyama | Juryo 8 West | 411 | Juryo 13 West | Juryo 14 East | One rank off |
| Enho | Juryo 9 East | 78 | Juryo 10 East | Juryo 10 East | Exact |
| Tohakuryu | Juryo 9 West | 87 | Juryo 7 West | Juryo 8 West | One rank off |
| Nabatame | Juryo 10 East | 96 | Juryo 5 West | Juryo 6 West | One rank off |
| Tanji | Juryo 10 West | 96 | Juryo 6 East | Juryo 7 East | One rank off |
| Kagayaki | Juryo 11 East | 114 | Juryo 3 West | Juryo 3 East | Right rank |
| Hitoshi | Juryo 11 West | 96 | Juryo 7 East | Juryo 7 West | Right rank |
| Tamashoho | Juryo 12 East | 69 | Juryo 14 East | Juryo 12 West | Wrong direction |
| Kayo | Juryo 12 West | 114 | Juryo 5 East | Juryo 4 West | One rank off |
| Meisei | Juryo 13 East | 78 | Juryo 12 West | Juryo 13 East | One rank off |
| Yoshii | Juryo 13 West | 78 | Juryo 13 East | Juryo 13 West | Right rank |
| Tochitaikai | Juryo 14 East | 510 | Makushita 3 West | Makushita 3 West | Exact |
| Nishikigi | Juryo 14 West | 69 | Makushita 1 West | Makushita 2 East | One rank off |
Forecast for every wrestler
Makuuchi Top division
Ozeki 1 East Kirishima 87 ↓Ozeki 2 East Kachi-koshi secured
The 8-7 record creates a promotion claim. After every competing claim is placed, the available position is Ozeki 2 East.
Wrestler profileOzeki 1 West Kotozakura 96 →Ozeki 1 West Kachi-koshi secured
The 9-6 record creates a promotion claim. After every competing claim is placed, the available position is Ozeki 1 West.
Wrestler profileOzeki 2 East Aonishiki 114 ↑Ozeki 1 East Kachi-koshi secured
The 11-4 record creates a promotion claim. After every competing claim is placed, the available position is Ozeki 1 East.
Wrestler profileSekiwake 1 East Atamifuji 87 →Sekiwake 1 West Kachi-koshi secured
The 8-7 record creates a promotion claim. After every competing claim is placed, the available position is Sekiwake 1 West.
Wrestler profileSekiwake 1 West Fujinokawa 114 →Sekiwake 1 East Kachi-koshi secured
The 11-4 record creates a promotion claim. After every competing claim is placed, the available position is Sekiwake 1 East.
Wrestler profileKomusubi 1 East Hakunofuji 510 ↓Maegashira 1 East Make-koshi confirmed
The 5-10 record creates demotion pressure. After every competing claim is placed, the available position is Maegashira 1 East.
Wrestler profileKomusubi 1 West Daieisho 510 ↓Maegashira 1 West Make-koshi confirmed
The 5-10 record creates demotion pressure. After every competing claim is placed, the available position is Maegashira 1 West.
Wrestler profileMaegashira 1 East Kotoshoho 573 ↓Maegashira 5 West Make-koshi confirmed
The 5-7-3 record creates demotion pressure. After every competing claim is placed, the available position is Maegashira 5 West.
Wrestler profileMaegashira 1 West Kotoeiho 510 ↓Maegashira 6 East Make-koshi confirmed
The 5-10 record creates demotion pressure. After every competing claim is placed, the available position is Maegashira 6 East.
Wrestler profileMaegashira 2 East Takayasu 78 ↓Maegashira 3 East Make-koshi confirmed
The 7-8 record creates demotion pressure. After every competing claim is placed, the available position is Maegashira 3 East.
Wrestler profileMaegashira 2 West Yoshinofuji 96 ↑Komusubi 1 West Kachi-koshi secured
The 9-6 record creates a promotion claim. After every competing claim is placed, the available position is Komusubi 1 West.
Wrestler profileMaegashira 3 East Gonoyama 69 ↓Maegashira 6 West Make-koshi confirmed
The 6-9 record creates demotion pressure. After every competing claim is placed, the available position is Maegashira 6 West.
Wrestler profileMaegashira 3 West Churanoumi 105 ↑Komusubi 1 East Kachi-koshi secured
The 10-5 record creates a promotion claim. After every competing claim is placed, the available position is Komusubi 1 East.
Wrestler profileMaegashira 4 East Takanosho 492 ↓Maegashira 10 West Make-koshi confirmed
The 4-9-2 record creates demotion pressure. After every competing claim is placed, the available position is Maegashira 10 West.
Wrestler profileMaegashira 4 West Fujiryoga 87 ↑Maegashira 2 West Kachi-koshi secured
The 8-7 record creates a promotion claim. After every competing claim is placed, the available position is Maegashira 2 West.
Wrestler profileMaegashira 5 East Roga 69 ↓Maegashira 8 West Make-koshi confirmed
The 6-9 record creates demotion pressure. After every competing claim is placed, the available position is Maegashira 8 West.
Wrestler profileMaegashira 5 West Oshoma 69 ↓Maegashira 9 East Make-koshi confirmed
The 6-9 record creates demotion pressure. After every competing claim is placed, the available position is Maegashira 9 East.
Wrestler profileMaegashira 6 East Asanoyama 105 ↑Maegashira 2 East Kachi-koshi secured
The 10-5 record creates a promotion claim. After every competing claim is placed, the available position is Maegashira 2 East.
Wrestler profileMaegashira 6 West Ichiyamamoto 411 ↓Maegashira 12 West Make-koshi confirmed
The 4-11 record creates demotion pressure. After every competing claim is placed, the available position is Maegashira 12 West.
Wrestler profileMaegashira 7 East Fujiseiun 96 ↑Maegashira 3 West Kachi-koshi secured
The 9-6 record creates a promotion claim. After every competing claim is placed, the available position is Maegashira 3 West.
Wrestler profileMaegashira 7 West Nishikifuji 78 ↓Maegashira 8 East Make-koshi confirmed
The 7-8 record creates demotion pressure. After every competing claim is placed, the available position is Maegashira 8 East.
Wrestler profileMaegashira 8 East Takerufuji 96 ↑Maegashira 4 West Kachi-koshi secured
The 9-6 record creates a promotion claim. After every competing claim is placed, the available position is Maegashira 4 West.
Wrestler profileMaegashira 8 West Hiradoumi 96 ↑Maegashira 5 East Kachi-koshi secured
The 9-6 record creates a promotion claim. After every competing claim is placed, the available position is Maegashira 5 East.
Wrestler profileMaegashira 9 East Ura 105 ↑Maegashira 4 East Kachi-koshi secured
The 10-5 record creates a promotion claim. After every competing claim is placed, the available position is Maegashira 4 East.
Wrestler profileMaegashira 9 West Shishi 78 ↓Maegashira 10 East Make-koshi confirmed
The 7-8 record creates demotion pressure. After every competing claim is placed, the available position is Maegashira 10 East.
Wrestler profileMaegashira 10 East Oho 78 ↓Maegashira 11 West Make-koshi confirmed
The 7-8 record creates demotion pressure. After every competing claim is placed, the available position is Maegashira 11 West.
Wrestler profileMaegashira 10 West Kinbozan 96 ↑Maegashira 7 West Kachi-koshi secured
The 9-6 record creates a promotion claim. After every competing claim is placed, the available position is Maegashira 7 West.
Wrestler profileMaegashira 11 East Wakamotoharu 105 ↑Maegashira 7 East Kachi-koshi secured
The 10-5 record creates a promotion claim. After every competing claim is placed, the available position is Maegashira 7 East.
Wrestler profileMaegashira 11 West Shodai 312 ↓Juryo 1 West Make-koshi confirmed
The 3-12 record creates demotion pressure. The full field leaves a place across the division line at Juryo 1 West.
Wrestler profileMaegashira 12 East Wakatakakage 0015 ↓Juryo 9 West Make-koshi confirmed
The 0-0-15 record creates demotion pressure. The full field leaves a place across the division line at Juryo 9 West.
Wrestler profileMaegashira 12 West Asahakuryu 87 ↑Maegashira 11 East Kachi-koshi secured
The 8-7 record creates a promotion claim. After every competing claim is placed, the available position is Maegashira 11 East.
Wrestler profileMaegashira 13 East Asakoryu 96 ↑Maegashira 9 West Kachi-koshi secured
The 9-6 record creates a promotion claim. After every competing claim is placed, the available position is Maegashira 9 West.
Wrestler profileMaegashira 13 West Abi 87 ↑Maegashira 12 East Kachi-koshi secured
The 8-7 record creates a promotion claim. After every competing claim is placed, the available position is Maegashira 12 East.
Wrestler profileMaegashira 14 East Tobizaru 411 ↓Juryo 2 West Make-koshi confirmed
The 4-11 record creates demotion pressure. The full field leaves a place across the division line at Juryo 2 West.
Wrestler profileMaegashira 14 West Chiyoshoma 510 ↓Maegashira 16 West Make-koshi confirmed
The 5-10 record creates demotion pressure. After every competing claim is placed, the available position is Maegashira 16 West.
Wrestler profileMaegashira 15 East Asasuiryu 87 ↑Maegashira 13 West Kachi-koshi secured
The 8-7 record creates a promotion claim. After every competing claim is placed, the available position is Maegashira 13 West.
Wrestler profileMaegashira 15 West Tokihayate 87 ↑Maegashira 14 East Kachi-koshi secured
The 8-7 record creates a promotion claim. After every competing claim is placed, the available position is Maegashira 14 East.
Wrestler profileMaegashira 16 East Wakanosho 0015 ↓Juryo 12 East Make-koshi confirmed
The 0-0-15 record creates demotion pressure. The full field leaves a place across the division line at Juryo 12 East.
Wrestler profileMaegashira 16 West Toshinofuji 96 ↑Maegashira 13 East Kachi-koshi secured
The 9-6 record creates a promotion claim. After every competing claim is placed, the available position is Maegashira 13 East.
Wrestler profileMaegashira 17 East Shonannoumi 312 ↓Juryo 6 West Make-koshi confirmed
The 3-12 record creates demotion pressure. The full field leaves a place across the division line at Juryo 6 West.
Wrestler profileJuryo Second division
Juryo 1 East Dewanoryu 105 ↑Maegashira 14 West Kachi-koshi secured
The 10-5 record creates a promotion claim. The full field leaves a place across the division line at Maegashira 14 West.
Wrestler profileJuryo 1 West Kyokukaiyu 87 ↑Maegashira 16 East Kachi-koshi secured
The 8-7 record creates a promotion claim. The full field leaves a place across the division line at Maegashira 16 East.
Wrestler profileJuryo 2 East Daiseizan 87 ↑Juryo 1 East Kachi-koshi secured
The 8-7 record creates a promotion claim. After every competing claim is placed, the available position is Juryo 1 East.
Wrestler profileJuryo 2 West Kazuma 69 ↓Juryo 4 West Make-koshi confirmed
The 6-9 record creates demotion pressure. After every competing claim is placed, the available position is Juryo 4 West.
Wrestler profileJuryo 3 East Tamawashi 105 ↑Maegashira 15 East Kachi-koshi secured
The 10-5 record creates a promotion claim. The full field leaves a place across the division line at Maegashira 15 East.
Wrestler profileJuryo 3 West Onokatsu 87 ↑Juryo 2 East Kachi-koshi secured
The 8-7 record creates a promotion claim. After every competing claim is placed, the available position is Juryo 2 East.
Wrestler profileJuryo 4 East Kazekeno 87 ↑Juryo 3 East Kachi-koshi secured
The 8-7 record creates a promotion claim. After every competing claim is placed, the available position is Juryo 3 East.
Wrestler profileJuryo 4 West Mitakeumi 510 ↓Juryo 8 West Make-koshi confirmed
The 5-10 record creates demotion pressure. After every competing claim is placed, the available position is Juryo 8 West.
Wrestler profileJuryo 5 East Sadanoumi 312 ↓Juryo 11 West Make-koshi confirmed
The 3-12 record creates demotion pressure. After every competing claim is placed, the available position is Juryo 11 West.
Wrestler profileJuryo 5 West Arashifuji 105 ↑Maegashira 17 East Kachi-koshi secured
The 10-5 record creates a promotion claim. The full field leaves a place across the division line at Maegashira 17 East.
Wrestler profileJuryo 6 East Kitanowaka 114 ↑Maegashira 15 West Kachi-koshi secured
The 11-4 record creates a promotion claim. The full field leaves a place across the division line at Maegashira 15 West.
Wrestler profileJuryo 6 West Shirokuma 69 ↓Juryo 9 East Make-koshi confirmed
The 6-9 record creates demotion pressure. After every competing claim is placed, the available position is Juryo 9 East.
Wrestler profileJuryo 7 East Midorifuji 78 ↓Juryo 8 East Make-koshi confirmed
The 7-8 record creates demotion pressure. After every competing claim is placed, the available position is Juryo 8 East.
Wrestler profileJuryo 7 West Tomokaze 510 ↓Juryo 11 East Make-koshi confirmed
The 5-10 record creates demotion pressure. After every competing claim is placed, the available position is Juryo 11 East.
Wrestler profileJuryo 8 East Ryuden 96 ↑Juryo 4 East Kachi-koshi secured
The 9-6 record creates a promotion claim. After every competing claim is placed, the available position is Juryo 4 East.
Wrestler profileJuryo 8 West Hatsuyama 411 ↓Juryo 13 West Make-koshi confirmed
The 4-11 record creates demotion pressure. After every competing claim is placed, the available position is Juryo 13 West.
Wrestler profileJuryo 9 East Enho 78 ↓Juryo 10 East Make-koshi confirmed
The 7-8 record creates demotion pressure. After every competing claim is placed, the available position is Juryo 10 East.
Wrestler profileJuryo 9 West Tohakuryu 87 ↑Juryo 7 West Kachi-koshi secured
The 8-7 record creates a promotion claim. After every competing claim is placed, the available position is Juryo 7 West.
Wrestler profileJuryo 10 East Nabatame 96 ↑Juryo 5 West Kachi-koshi secured
The 9-6 record creates a promotion claim. After every competing claim is placed, the available position is Juryo 5 West.
Wrestler profileJuryo 10 West Tanji 96 ↑Juryo 6 East Kachi-koshi secured
The 9-6 record creates a promotion claim. After every competing claim is placed, the available position is Juryo 6 East.
Wrestler profileJuryo 11 East Kagayaki 114 ↑Juryo 3 West Kachi-koshi secured
The 11-4 record creates a promotion claim. After every competing claim is placed, the available position is Juryo 3 West.
Wrestler profileJuryo 11 West Hitoshi 96 ↑Juryo 7 East Kachi-koshi secured
The 9-6 record creates a promotion claim. After every competing claim is placed, the available position is Juryo 7 East.
Wrestler profileJuryo 12 East Tamashoho 69 ↓Juryo 14 East Make-koshi confirmed
The 6-9 record creates demotion pressure. After every competing claim is placed, the available position is Juryo 14 East.
Wrestler profileJuryo 12 West Kayo 114 ↑Juryo 5 East Kachi-koshi secured
The 11-4 record creates a promotion claim. After every competing claim is placed, the available position is Juryo 5 East.
Wrestler profileJuryo 13 East Meisei 78 ↑Juryo 12 West Make-koshi confirmed
The 7-8 record creates demotion pressure. After every competing claim is placed, the available position is Juryo 12 West.
Wrestler profileJuryo 13 West Yoshii 78 →Juryo 13 East Make-koshi confirmed
The 7-8 record creates demotion pressure. After every competing claim is placed, the available position is Juryo 13 East.
Wrestler profileJuryo 14 East Tochitaikai 510 ↓Makushita 3 West Make-koshi confirmed
The 5-10 record creates demotion pressure. The full field leaves a place across the division line at Makushita 3 West.
Wrestler profileJuryo 14 West Nishikigi 69 ↓Makushita 1 West Make-koshi confirmed
The 6-9 record creates demotion pressure. The full field leaves a place across the division line at Makushita 1 West.
Wrestler profileNo wrestlers match that filter.
How the forecast works
Grand sumo has no points table. After each tournament the Japan Sumo Association's ranking committee rebuilds the banzuke from every result, so a forecast is a comparison of cases, not a formula.
- Record. A winning record (8+ wins) usually moves a wrestler up, a losing record down. The margin matters: 8-7 and 12-3 are not equal cases.
- Starting point. The same score moves a wrestler further from near the bottom of a division than from near the top.
- Available places. Every rank has limited room. A strong Juryo record needs someone in Makuuchi to drop out before it can go up.
- Named ranks. Sanyaku have extra rules. Yokozuna cannot be demoted, Ozeki get a kadoban warning first, and Yokozuna promotion is a separate decision, so we do not forecast Yokozuna.
How the model works. Each wrestler gets a claim from his rank, record, absences, and kadoban or promotion runs. One allocator then fills a complete banzuke with fixed division sizes and unique East and West slots. After each basho the final forecast is frozen, then graded against the real banzuke on this page.
Full banzuke guide