Nagoya Basho: final forecast
Frozen after the final day, before the next banzuke was published.
How the Nagoya Basho forecast did
Graded against the official Aki Basho banzuke. The forecast was frozen before it was published.
- Right direction
- 87% 59 of 68
- Exact rank
- 46% 31 of 68
- Within one rank
- 85% 58 of 68
- Division moves
- 12/14 Makuuchi/Juryo line calls
- Exact slot 19
- Right rank, other side 12
- One rank off 27
- Right direction 7
- Wrong direction 3
All 68 calls
| Wrestler | Was | Record | We said | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirishima | Ozeki 1 East | 123 | Yokozuna 1 East | Ozeki 1 East | Wrong direction |
| Kotozakura | Ozeki 1 West | 87 | Ozeki 1 West | Ozeki 1 West | Exact |
| Atamifuji | Sekiwake 1 East | 123 | Sekiwake 1 East | Sekiwake 1 East | Exact |
| Kotoshoho | Sekiwake 1 West | 69 | Komusubi 1 East | Maegashira 1 East | Right direction (4 off) |
| Wakatakakage | Sekiwake 2 East | 0015 | Maegashira 10 East | Maegashira 12 East | Right direction (2 off) |
| Aonishiki | Sekiwake 2 West | 123 | Ozeki 1 East | Ozeki 2 East | One rank off |
| Yoshinofuji | Komusubi 1 East | 69 | Maegashira 1 West | Maegashira 2 West | One rank off |
| Oho | Komusubi 1 West | 213 | Maegashira 6 East | Maegashira 10 East | Right direction (4 off) |
| Fujinokawa | Maegashira 1 East | 87 | Maegashira 1 East | Sekiwake 1 West | Wrong direction |
| Takanosho | Maegashira 1 West | 69 | Maegashira 4 East | Maegashira 4 East | Exact |
| Gonoyama | Maegashira 2 East | 78 | Maegashira 3 East | Maegashira 3 East | Exact |
| Churanoumi | Maegashira 2 West | 78 | Maegashira 3 West | Maegashira 3 West | Exact |
| Hiradoumi | Maegashira 3 East | 411 | Maegashira 9 West | Maegashira 8 West | One rank off |
| Hakunofuji | Maegashira 3 West | 96 | Komusubi 1 West | Komusubi 1 East | Right rank |
| Daieisho | Maegashira 4 East | 105 | Sekiwake 1 West | Komusubi 1 West | Right direction (4 off) |
| Ichiyamamoto | Maegashira 4 West | 69 | Maegashira 7 West | Maegashira 6 West | One rank off |
| Ura | Maegashira 5 East | 510 | Maegashira 9 East | Maegashira 9 East | Exact |
| Oshoma | Maegashira 5 West | 78 | Maegashira 5 West | Maegashira 5 West | Exact |
| Shodai | Maegashira 6 East | 510 | Maegashira 11 East | Maegashira 11 West | Right rank |
| Fujiseiun | Maegashira 6 West | 78 | Maegashira 7 East | Maegashira 7 East | Exact |
| Kotoeiho | Maegashira 7 East | 114 | Maegashira 2 East | Maegashira 1 West | One rank off |
| Takayasu | Maegashira 7 West | 114 | Maegashira 2 West | Maegashira 2 East | Right rank |
| Wakamotoharu | Maegashira 8 East | 69 | Maegashira 12 East | Maegashira 11 East | One rank off |
| Roga | Maegashira 8 West | 96 | Maegashira 5 East | Maegashira 5 East | Exact |
| Fujiryoga | Maegashira 9 East | 105 | Maegashira 4 West | Maegashira 4 West | Exact |
| Tobizaru | Maegashira 9 West | 510 | Maegashira 14 East | Maegashira 14 East | Exact |
| Asanoyama | Maegashira 10 East | 96 | Maegashira 6 West | Maegashira 6 East | Right rank |
| Chiyoshoma | Maegashira 10 West | 510 | Maegashira 14 West | Maegashira 14 West | Exact |
| Wakanosho | Maegashira 11 East | 528 | Maegashira 16 West | Maegashira 16 East | Right rank |
| Mitakeumi | Maegashira 11 West | 213 | Juryo 3 East | Juryo 4 West | One rank off |
| Asahakuryu | Maegashira 12 East | 78 | Maegashira 13 East | Maegashira 12 West | One rank off |
| Abi | Maegashira 12 West | 78 | Maegashira 13 West | Maegashira 13 West | Exact |
| Nishikifuji | Maegashira 13 East | 105 | Maegashira 8 East | Maegashira 7 West | One rank off |
| Takerufuji | Maegashira 13 West | 105 | Maegashira 8 West | Maegashira 8 East | Right rank |
| Kinbozan | Maegashira 14 East | 96 | Maegashira 11 West | Maegashira 10 West | One rank off |
| Shishi | Maegashira 14 West | 105 | Maegashira 10 West | Maegashira 9 West | One rank off |
| Onokatsu | Maegashira 15 East | 411 | Juryo 3 West | Juryo 3 West | Exact |
| Kazuma | Maegashira 15 West | 510 | Juryo 2 East | Juryo 2 West | Right rank |
| Daiseizan | Maegashira 16 East | 69 | Juryo 1 West | Juryo 2 East | One rank off |
| Asakoryu | Maegashira 16 West | 96 | Maegashira 12 West | Maegashira 13 East | One rank off |
| Asasuiryu | Juryo 1 East | 1041 | Maegashira 15 East | Maegashira 15 East | Exact |
| Kyokukaiyu | Juryo 1 West | 771 | Juryo 2 West | Juryo 1 West | One rank off |
| Tokihayate | Juryo 2 East | 1041 | Maegashira 16 East | Maegashira 15 West | One rank off |
| Sadanoumi | Juryo 2 West | 492 | Juryo 7 West | Juryo 5 East | Right direction (2 off) |
| Ryuden | Juryo 3 East | 4101 | Juryo 8 West | Juryo 8 East | Right rank |
| Dewanoryu | Juryo 3 West | 951 | Juryo 1 East | Juryo 1 East | Exact |
| Tomokaze | Juryo 4 East | 591 | Juryo 7 East | Juryo 7 West | Right rank |
| Toshinofuji | Juryo 4 West | 114 | Maegashira 15 West | Maegashira 16 West | One rank off |
| Kitanowaka | Juryo 5 East | 78 | Juryo 5 West | Juryo 6 East | One rank off |
| Oshoumi | Juryo 5 West | 0510 | Makushita 6 East | Makushita 2 East | Right direction (4 off) |
| Shonannoumi | Juryo 6 East | 114 | Maegashira 17 East | Maegashira 17 East | Exact |
| Kazekeno | Juryo 6 West | 87 | Juryo 4 West | Juryo 4 East | Right rank |
| Tamawashi | Juryo 7 East | 96 | Juryo 4 East | Juryo 3 East | One rank off |
| Meisei | Juryo 7 West | 411 | Juryo 12 East | Juryo 13 East | One rank off |
| Midorifuji | Juryo 8 East | 87 | Juryo 6 West | Juryo 7 East | One rank off |
| Hatsuyama | Juryo 8 West | 78 | Juryo 8 East | Juryo 8 West | Right rank |
| Shirokuma | Juryo 9 East | 96 | Juryo 5 East | Juryo 6 West | One rank off |
| Nishinoryu | Juryo 9 West | 411 | Juryo 14 East | Makushita 1 East | One rank off |
| Hitoshi | Juryo 10 East | 69 | Juryo 11 East | Juryo 11 West | Right rank |
| Tamashoho | Juryo 10 West | 69 | Juryo 11 West | Juryo 12 East | One rank off |
| Kagayaki | Juryo 11 East | 78 | Juryo 10 East | Juryo 11 East | One rank off |
| Enho | Juryo 11 West | 87 | Juryo 9 East | Juryo 9 East | Exact |
| Tohakuryu | Juryo 12 East | 87 | Juryo 9 West | Juryo 9 West | Exact |
| Kayo | Juryo 12 West | 78 | Juryo 10 West | Juryo 12 West | Wrong direction |
| Arashifuji | Juryo 13 East | 114 | Juryo 6 East | Juryo 5 West | One rank off |
| Hakuyozan | Juryo 13 West | 0015 | Makushita 14 East | Makushita 10 West | Right direction (4 off) |
| Tochitaikai | Juryo 14 East | 78 | Juryo 13 East | Juryo 14 East | One rank off |
| Nishikigi | Juryo 14 West | 78 | Juryo 13 West | Juryo 14 West | One rank off |
Forecast for every wrestler
Makuuchi Top division
Ozeki 1 East Kirishima 123 ↑Yokozuna 1 East Kachi-koshi secured
The model recognizes a consecutive Ozeki title-equivalent run. After every competing claim is placed, the available position is Yokozuna 1 East.
Wrestler profileOzeki 1 West Kotozakura 87 →Ozeki 1 West Kachi-koshi secured
The 8-7 record creates a promotion claim. After every competing claim is placed, the available position is Ozeki 1 West.
Wrestler profileSekiwake 1 East Atamifuji 123 →Sekiwake 1 East Kachi-koshi secured
The 12-3 record creates a promotion claim. After every competing claim is placed, the available position is Sekiwake 1 East.
Wrestler profileSekiwake 1 West Kotoshoho 69 ↓Komusubi 1 East Make-koshi confirmed
The 6-9 record creates demotion pressure. After every competing claim is placed, the available position is Komusubi 1 East.
Wrestler profileSekiwake 2 East Wakatakakage 0015 ↓Maegashira 10 East Make-koshi confirmed
The 0-0-15 record creates demotion pressure. After every competing claim is placed, the available position is Maegashira 10 East.
Wrestler profileSekiwake 2 West Aonishiki 123 ↑Ozeki 1 East Kachi-koshi secured
The model recognizes an immediate Ozeki return case. After every competing claim is placed, the available position is Ozeki 1 East.
Wrestler profileKomusubi 1 East Yoshinofuji 69 ↓Maegashira 1 West Make-koshi confirmed
The 6-9 record creates demotion pressure. After every competing claim is placed, the available position is Maegashira 1 West.
Wrestler profileKomusubi 1 West Oho 213 ↓Maegashira 6 East Make-koshi confirmed
The 2-13 record creates demotion pressure. After every competing claim is placed, the available position is Maegashira 6 East.
Wrestler profileMaegashira 1 East Fujinokawa 87 →Maegashira 1 East Kachi-koshi secured
The 8-7 record creates a promotion claim. After every competing claim is placed, the available position is Maegashira 1 East.
Wrestler profileMaegashira 1 West Takanosho 69 ↓Maegashira 4 East Make-koshi confirmed
The 6-9 record creates demotion pressure. After every competing claim is placed, the available position is Maegashira 4 East.
Wrestler profileMaegashira 2 East Gonoyama 78 ↓Maegashira 3 East Make-koshi confirmed
The 7-8 record creates demotion pressure. After every competing claim is placed, the available position is Maegashira 3 East.
Wrestler profileMaegashira 2 West Churanoumi 78 ↓Maegashira 3 West Make-koshi confirmed
The 7-8 record creates demotion pressure. After every competing claim is placed, the available position is Maegashira 3 West.
Wrestler profileMaegashira 3 East Hiradoumi 411 ↓Maegashira 9 West Make-koshi confirmed
The 4-11 record creates demotion pressure. After every competing claim is placed, the available position is Maegashira 9 West.
Wrestler profileMaegashira 3 West Hakunofuji 96 ↑Komusubi 1 West Kachi-koshi secured
The 9-6 record creates a promotion claim. After every competing claim is placed, the available position is Komusubi 1 West.
Wrestler profileMaegashira 4 East Daieisho 105 ↑Sekiwake 1 West Kachi-koshi secured
The 10-5 record creates a promotion claim. After every competing claim is placed, the available position is Sekiwake 1 West.
Wrestler profileMaegashira 4 West Ichiyamamoto 69 ↓Maegashira 7 West Make-koshi confirmed
The 6-9 record creates demotion pressure. After every competing claim is placed, the available position is Maegashira 7 West.
Wrestler profileMaegashira 5 East Ura 510 ↓Maegashira 9 East Make-koshi confirmed
The 5-10 record creates demotion pressure. After every competing claim is placed, the available position is Maegashira 9 East.
Wrestler profileMaegashira 5 West Oshoma 78 →Maegashira 5 West Make-koshi confirmed
The 7-8 record creates demotion pressure. After every competing claim is placed, the available position is Maegashira 5 West.
Wrestler profileMaegashira 6 East Shodai 510 ↓Maegashira 11 East Make-koshi confirmed
The 5-10 record creates demotion pressure. After every competing claim is placed, the available position is Maegashira 11 East.
Wrestler profileMaegashira 6 West Fujiseiun 78 ↓Maegashira 7 East Make-koshi confirmed
The 7-8 record creates demotion pressure. After every competing claim is placed, the available position is Maegashira 7 East.
Wrestler profileMaegashira 7 East Kotoeiho 114 ↑Maegashira 2 East Kachi-koshi secured
The 11-4 record creates a promotion claim. After every competing claim is placed, the available position is Maegashira 2 East.
Wrestler profileMaegashira 7 West Takayasu 114 ↑Maegashira 2 West Kachi-koshi secured
The 11-4 record creates a promotion claim. After every competing claim is placed, the available position is Maegashira 2 West.
Wrestler profileMaegashira 8 East Wakamotoharu 69 ↓Maegashira 12 East Make-koshi confirmed
The 6-9 record creates demotion pressure. After every competing claim is placed, the available position is Maegashira 12 East.
Wrestler profileMaegashira 8 West Roga 96 ↑Maegashira 5 East Kachi-koshi secured
The 9-6 record creates a promotion claim. After every competing claim is placed, the available position is Maegashira 5 East.
Wrestler profileMaegashira 9 East Fujiryoga 105 ↑Maegashira 4 West Kachi-koshi secured
The 10-5 record creates a promotion claim. After every competing claim is placed, the available position is Maegashira 4 West.
Wrestler profileMaegashira 9 West Tobizaru 510 ↓Maegashira 14 East Make-koshi confirmed
The 5-10 record creates demotion pressure. After every competing claim is placed, the available position is Maegashira 14 East.
Wrestler profileMaegashira 10 East Asanoyama 96 ↑Maegashira 6 West Kachi-koshi secured
The 9-6 record creates a promotion claim. After every competing claim is placed, the available position is Maegashira 6 West.
Wrestler profileMaegashira 10 West Chiyoshoma 510 ↓Maegashira 14 West Make-koshi confirmed
The 5-10 record creates demotion pressure. After every competing claim is placed, the available position is Maegashira 14 West.
Wrestler profileMaegashira 11 East Wakanosho 528 ↓Maegashira 16 West Make-koshi confirmed
The 5-2-8 record creates demotion pressure. After every competing claim is placed, the available position is Maegashira 16 West.
Wrestler profileMaegashira 11 West Mitakeumi 213 ↓Juryo 3 East Make-koshi confirmed
The 2-13 record creates demotion pressure. The full field leaves a place across the division line at Juryo 3 East.
Wrestler profileMaegashira 12 East Asahakuryu 78 ↓Maegashira 13 East Make-koshi confirmed
The 7-8 record creates demotion pressure. After every competing claim is placed, the available position is Maegashira 13 East.
Wrestler profileMaegashira 12 West Abi 78 ↓Maegashira 13 West Make-koshi confirmed
The 7-8 record creates demotion pressure. After every competing claim is placed, the available position is Maegashira 13 West.
Wrestler profileMaegashira 13 East Nishikifuji 105 ↑Maegashira 8 East Kachi-koshi secured
The 10-5 record creates a promotion claim. After every competing claim is placed, the available position is Maegashira 8 East.
Wrestler profileMaegashira 13 West Takerufuji 105 ↑Maegashira 8 West Kachi-koshi secured
The 10-5 record creates a promotion claim. After every competing claim is placed, the available position is Maegashira 8 West.
Wrestler profileMaegashira 14 East Kinbozan 96 ↑Maegashira 11 West Kachi-koshi secured
The 9-6 record creates a promotion claim. After every competing claim is placed, the available position is Maegashira 11 West.
Wrestler profileMaegashira 14 West Shishi 105 ↑Maegashira 10 West Kachi-koshi secured
The 10-5 record creates a promotion claim. After every competing claim is placed, the available position is Maegashira 10 West.
Wrestler profileMaegashira 15 East Onokatsu 411 ↓Juryo 3 West Make-koshi confirmed
The 4-11 record creates demotion pressure. The full field leaves a place across the division line at Juryo 3 West.
Wrestler profileMaegashira 15 West Kazuma 510 ↓Juryo 2 East Make-koshi confirmed
The 5-10 record creates demotion pressure. The full field leaves a place across the division line at Juryo 2 East.
Wrestler profileMaegashira 16 East Daiseizan 69 ↓Juryo 1 West Make-koshi confirmed
The 6-9 record creates demotion pressure. The full field leaves a place across the division line at Juryo 1 West.
Wrestler profileMaegashira 16 West Asakoryu 96 ↑Maegashira 12 West Kachi-koshi secured
The 9-6 record creates a promotion claim. After every competing claim is placed, the available position is Maegashira 12 West.
Wrestler profileJuryo Second division
Juryo 1 East Asasuiryu 1041 ↑Maegashira 15 East Kachi-koshi secured
The 10-4-1 record creates a promotion claim. The full field leaves a place across the division line at Maegashira 15 East.
Wrestler profileJuryo 1 West Kyokukaiyu 771 ↓Juryo 2 West Make-koshi confirmed
The 7-7-1 record creates demotion pressure. After every competing claim is placed, the available position is Juryo 2 West.
Wrestler profileJuryo 2 East Tokihayate 1041 ↑Maegashira 16 East Kachi-koshi secured
The 10-4-1 record creates a promotion claim. The full field leaves a place across the division line at Maegashira 16 East.
Wrestler profileJuryo 2 West Sadanoumi 492 ↓Juryo 7 West Make-koshi confirmed
The 4-9-2 record creates demotion pressure. After every competing claim is placed, the available position is Juryo 7 West.
Wrestler profileJuryo 3 East Ryuden 4101 ↓Juryo 8 West Make-koshi confirmed
The 4-10-1 record creates demotion pressure. After every competing claim is placed, the available position is Juryo 8 West.
Wrestler profileJuryo 3 West Dewanoryu 951 ↑Juryo 1 East Kachi-koshi secured
The 9-5-1 record creates a promotion claim. After every competing claim is placed, the available position is Juryo 1 East.
Wrestler profileJuryo 4 East Tomokaze 591 ↓Juryo 7 East Make-koshi confirmed
The 5-9-1 record creates demotion pressure. After every competing claim is placed, the available position is Juryo 7 East.
Wrestler profileJuryo 4 West Toshinofuji 114 ↑Maegashira 15 West Kachi-koshi secured
The 11-4 record creates a promotion claim. The full field leaves a place across the division line at Maegashira 15 West.
Wrestler profileJuryo 5 East Kitanowaka 78 →Juryo 5 West Make-koshi confirmed
The 7-8 record creates demotion pressure. After every competing claim is placed, the available position is Juryo 5 West.
Wrestler profileJuryo 5 West Oshoumi 0510 ↓Makushita 6 East Make-koshi confirmed
The 0-5-10 record creates demotion pressure. The full field leaves a place across the division line at Makushita 6 East.
Wrestler profileJuryo 6 East Shonannoumi 114 ↑Maegashira 17 East Kachi-koshi secured
The 11-4 record creates a promotion claim. The full field leaves a place across the division line at Maegashira 17 East.
Wrestler profileJuryo 6 West Kazekeno 87 ↑Juryo 4 West Kachi-koshi secured
The 8-7 record creates a promotion claim. After every competing claim is placed, the available position is Juryo 4 West.
Wrestler profileJuryo 7 East Tamawashi 96 ↑Juryo 4 East Kachi-koshi secured
The 9-6 record creates a promotion claim. After every competing claim is placed, the available position is Juryo 4 East.
Wrestler profileJuryo 7 West Meisei 411 ↓Juryo 12 East Make-koshi confirmed
The 4-11 record creates demotion pressure. After every competing claim is placed, the available position is Juryo 12 East.
Wrestler profileJuryo 8 East Midorifuji 87 ↑Juryo 6 West Kachi-koshi secured
The 8-7 record creates a promotion claim. After every competing claim is placed, the available position is Juryo 6 West.
Wrestler profileJuryo 8 West Hatsuyama 78 →Juryo 8 East Make-koshi confirmed
The 7-8 record creates demotion pressure. After every competing claim is placed, the available position is Juryo 8 East.
Wrestler profileJuryo 9 East Shirokuma 96 ↑Juryo 5 East Kachi-koshi secured
The 9-6 record creates a promotion claim. After every competing claim is placed, the available position is Juryo 5 East.
Wrestler profileJuryo 9 West Nishinoryu 411 ↓Juryo 14 East Make-koshi confirmed
The 4-11 record creates demotion pressure. After every competing claim is placed, the available position is Juryo 14 East.
Wrestler profileJuryo 10 East Hitoshi 69 ↓Juryo 11 East Make-koshi confirmed
The 6-9 record creates demotion pressure. After every competing claim is placed, the available position is Juryo 11 East.
Wrestler profileJuryo 10 West Tamashoho 69 ↓Juryo 11 West Make-koshi confirmed
The 6-9 record creates demotion pressure. After every competing claim is placed, the available position is Juryo 11 West.
Wrestler profileJuryo 11 East Kagayaki 78 ↑Juryo 10 East Make-koshi confirmed
The 7-8 record creates demotion pressure. After every competing claim is placed, the available position is Juryo 10 East.
Wrestler profileJuryo 11 West Enho 87 ↑Juryo 9 East Kachi-koshi secured
The 8-7 record creates a promotion claim. After every competing claim is placed, the available position is Juryo 9 East.
Wrestler profileJuryo 12 East Tohakuryu 87 ↑Juryo 9 West Kachi-koshi secured
The 8-7 record creates a promotion claim. After every competing claim is placed, the available position is Juryo 9 West.
Wrestler profileJuryo 12 West Kayo 78 ↑Juryo 10 West Make-koshi confirmed
The 7-8 record creates demotion pressure. After every competing claim is placed, the available position is Juryo 10 West.
Wrestler profileJuryo 13 East Arashifuji 114 ↑Juryo 6 East Kachi-koshi secured
The 11-4 record creates a promotion claim. After every competing claim is placed, the available position is Juryo 6 East.
Wrestler profileJuryo 13 West Hakuyozan 0015 ↓Makushita 14 East Make-koshi confirmed
The 0-0-15 record creates demotion pressure. The full field leaves a place across the division line at Makushita 14 East.
Wrestler profileJuryo 14 East Tochitaikai 78 ↑Juryo 13 East Make-koshi confirmed
The 7-8 record creates demotion pressure. After every competing claim is placed, the available position is Juryo 13 East.
Wrestler profileJuryo 14 West Nishikigi 78 ↑Juryo 13 West Make-koshi confirmed
The 7-8 record creates demotion pressure. After every competing claim is placed, the available position is Juryo 13 West.
Wrestler profileNo wrestlers match that filter.
How the forecast works
Grand sumo has no points table. After each tournament the Japan Sumo Association's ranking committee rebuilds the banzuke from every result, so a forecast is a comparison of cases, not a formula.
- Record. A winning record (8+ wins) usually moves a wrestler up, a losing record down. The margin matters: 8-7 and 12-3 are not equal cases.
- Starting point. The same score moves a wrestler further from near the bottom of a division than from near the top.
- Available places. Every rank has limited room. A strong Juryo record needs someone in Makuuchi to drop out before it can go up.
- Named ranks. Sanyaku have extra rules. Yokozuna cannot be demoted, Ozeki get a kadoban warning first, and Yokozuna promotion is a separate decision, so we do not forecast Yokozuna.
How the model works. Each wrestler gets a claim from his rank, record, absences, and kadoban or promotion runs. One allocator then fills a complete banzuke with fixed division sizes and unique East and West slots. After each basho the final forecast is frozen, then graded against the real banzuke on this page.
Full banzuke guide